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The wireless industry may be down but not out as keynoters from key companies offer a bright outlook for the next wave of innovations.
Scheduled this week for April 1-3 in Las Vegas, the International CTIA Wireless 2009 conference is a great way to get a sense of what is happening in the wireless space, ranging from the cellular business to allied technologies like Wi-Fi and WiMAX. And the first day of the conference did not disappoint me.
Steve Largent, president and CEO of CTIA, opened the keynotes with some encouraging stats from the organization’s latest survey. Growth is still good as indicated by the 15 million new subscribers in 2008, boosting the total number of U.S. subscribers to more than 270 million by the end of the year. Just over 2.2 trillion (yes, trillion with a T) minutes were used for voice calls alone in 2008.
But the real news is the huge increase in text messaging. Over 1 trillion SMS texts were sent last year, with 620 billion in the third and fourth quarters alone. Total cellular revenue topped $148 billion—sounds like stimulus numbers. As Steve Largent said, the cellular industry is a “shining light in these troubled times.” That’s so true.
There were three keynoters. The first was Robert Dotson, chairman and president of T-Mobile. He said 2008 was a good year as his company introduced Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) service and the Google Android phone G1 by HTC. It’s a big hit. Also, there were huge increases in wireless data services.
Dotson additionally said T-Mobile was emphasizing three important goals: preserving the environment with “green” efforts, promoting and implementing more and better broadband data initiatives, and increasing innovation. T-Mobile has been one of the last providers to implement 3G data services (UMTS/WCDMA, etc.), but it now has 130 cities covered with 3G and more on the way. T-Mobile will also implement HSPA+ and Long-Term Evolution (LTE) in the near future. Dotson does not see many people cutting back on wireless services even during this downturn as people want to stay connected.
Steve Largent rolled out some more survey stats next. For example, 94% of wireless subscribers say they are satisfied with their service. That’s very high. But he indicated that taxes on cell service had increased alarmingly over the past years, and 75% of subscribers believe that more government regulation will further increase taxes. He urged all of the attendees to support H.R. 1521, the Cellular Tax Fairness bill, which would alleviate the situation. Check out efforts related to support the bill at www.mywireless.org.
Ivan Seidenberg, chairman and CEO of Verizon Communications, was the next keynoter. His comments ranged over a huge number of topics. He did say that mobile phones had become a way of life that was not going away. As a result, Verizon will be investing heavily in infrastructure over the coming years. The total current worldwide revenue from mobile is over $800 billion with growth to come via more broadband and high-speed data services. He also reminded everyone of the 30% growth rate of smart phones. Verizon has committed to LTE for the future along with 26 other major wireless operators. They expect to have LTE coverage in 25 to 30 major markets by the end of 2010.
Seidenberg further indicated that Verizon started its Open Development Program in 2007 and now has certified 36 devices, including products in medical and meter-reading applications. Seidenberg also mentioned the unearthly tax burden on cell phones from both state and federal sources. New York is the worst, with nothing short of predatory tax policies. Finally, he hoped that the government would assign the D block of spectrum to city and state first responders so they could build a new system for emergencies.
Mike Lazaridis, co-CEO of Research in Motion, was next. He said smart phones accounted for 16% of all phone sales in 2008, and their percentage would grow to 26% by 2012. That’s good news for his BlackBerry product line. He went on to show all the various new apps for BlackBerries, with an emphasis on music and radio. Go to RIM’s Broadband Apps World site to see the huge number of new BlackBerry apps waiting for you. Lazaridis said that smart phones are changing the world. I agree.
As for the big gala on Wednesday, featured speaker Billy Crystal cancelled because of a back injury. His replacement was Jay Leno, who was a great choice. I wound up the day with seven briefings on a wide range of topics, and I will report on some of them later. Meanwhile, I didn’t hear about this year’s attendance figures, though they are clearly down from last year. Yet the show is still bustling and positive—down but not out, with positive growth overall. I’ll have more tomorrow, so click back here for the latest from Las Vegas and CTIA.
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