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Sprint’s so far challenging mobile WiMAX build out and rumors of a potential investment by Intel into the network are signs suggesting DSL/cable replacement and not mobility will continue to propel WiMAX forward in the short term, according to Visant Strategies.

The report, WiMAX: 2008 to 2013 – An Evolution to 802.16m, includes shipments and revenues for WiMAX infrastructure, fixed and mobile subscribers, chipsets, network services and user devices including Wave 2, femtocells, phones and laptops, through 2013.

“A vendor paying substantial sums for deployment of its own technology at this stage of product development is a concern. It’s not unusual for a vendor to promote its own technology, but the lack of substantial mobile WiMAX network deployments without the Intel investment is troubling from our perspective,” said Andy Fuertes of Visant Strategies.

“WiMAX vendors having a significant role in the mobile market was predicated upon success with early adapters, especially those with unused spectrum like Sprint, but too much time has passed now for 802.16e to unhinge traditional mobile platforms,” said Larry Swasey of Visant Strategies. “Major carriers are poised next year to deploy HSPA+ which is an update to existing WCDMA platforms and which will also outperform WiMAX Wave 2 networks. In a few more years operators will also be able to deploy UMB and LTE, which both offer substantial improvements over 802.16e.”

Fixed WiMAX markets will remain a key to vendors. Currently WiMAX revenues are experiencing brisk growth due to employment of the technology as a cable/DSL replacement. As detailed in the report “WiMAX: 2008 to 2013 – An Evolution to 802.16m,” fixed WiMAX subscribers will nearly double annually during these next years and will account for more than 60% of WiMAX subscribers by year end 2013 as well as a multibillion-dollar equipment market.

“Current events aside, WiMAX vendors are by no means out of the mobile race,” Swasey said. “The upcoming 802.16m specification will offer the WiMAX community another great shot at mobile wireless in the 2010-2012 time frame when most operators will be looking ahead.”