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Are cheap and ubiquitous solar panels almost here? Perhaps, if a solar cell is just a big specialized chip, then it can be argued that everything learned about making chips can be applied to solar panels.

It is well known that unceasing, dramatic improvements in computer chips over many years turned the PC and the cell phone into powerful, inexpensive appliances — and the foundation of giant industries. Solar enterprises are hoping for the same outcome.

What's more, this may become the largest market ever for the semiconductor industry. According to T. J. Rogers, the chief executive of Cypress Semiconductor, which is part-owner of the SunPower Corporation, a maker of solar cells in San Jose, Calif., the global market for new energy sources will ultimately be larger than the computer chip market.

Nanosolar, a solar company in San Jose, Calif. shipped its first thin film solar panels in December, and the company says it ultimately wants to produce panels that are both more efficient in converting sunlight into electricity and less expensive than today's versions.

One obstacle to solar innovation may be consumer behavior. They may be slow to swap out expensive water heaters for the latest in solar solutions. Another issue may be reliability. While current solar technologies have proved relatively durable, it is not known how resilient the next generation of solar will be. As some designers point out the technologies will have to survive on a rooftop for 20 years.

One technology that is being explored is thin-film solar, in which cells are created in very much the same way that memory is created on dense storage devices such as hard-disk drives.

But the technology is gathering steam. In 2006, Vinod Khosla, a veteran venture capitalist best known as a co-founder of Sun Microsystems Inc., discovered an obscure Australian company, Ausra, pursuing solar thermal. He persuaded the management of Ausra to move to Silicon Valley and helped it raise money. Ausra recently signed a deal with PG&E, the large California utility company, to supply a large solar plant.