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One can’t help but wonder how cellular, WiMAX and meshed Wi-Fi are going to get along as time goes on. Cellular is well embedded and both meshed Wi-Fi and WiMAX are briskly marching forward. WiMAX offers wide coverage with less nodes than do meshed Wi-Fi systems, yet the growth in Wi-Fi deployment is still strong. In-Stat recently announced some new research that sheds some light on this question.

In-Stat said that the Wi-Fi mesh networking equipment market had more than 100% shipment growth in 2006, and will have more than 90% growth in 2007. Strong growth will continue for Wi-Fi mesh access points (APs) for the next several years, as shipments grow more than three-fold between 2006 and 2011. Most of that growth, however, will come between 2006 and 2008, with growth rates rapidly declining starting in 2009.

“Cities will continue to deploy municipal mesh networks, but the rate of new deployments after 2008 will slow, due to concerns over the business model,” said Daryl Schoolar, In-Stat analyst. “Growth in the enterprise (large business) market, plus the need to replace previously deployed nodes, will help offset the slowdown in shipments to new municipal networks.”

In-Stat’s research found the following:

- Manufacturer revenues will grow through 2011, but not as fast as shipments due to expected cost-per-node declines.
- Supporting government applications are needed for a successful municipal network deployment, as consumer access in most cases is not enough to sustain the network by itself.
- WiMAX and cellular will both negatively impact the market as these services go after the same nomadic users that public Wi-Fi networks target.

The research, “2007 Worldwide Wi-Fi Mesh Equipment Market” (#IN0703647WBB), covers the worldwide market for Wi-Fi mesh networking and equipment. Included in this research are five-year forecast for AP shipments and revenues and market share information for AP shipments and revenues. It also provides analysis of technology and market changes and profiles of major vendors.

This research can be a valuable tool for not only investors, but city planners and service providers as well. The landscape for any technology is constantly changing, but reports do often expose trends that provide some guidance through forests of trees, each competing for attention.

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