Toward the end of 2009, slower than predicted growth rates for the femtocell market had prompted some to ask whatever happened to this promising technology. The truth is that the market is growing, and volume is about to happen. In fact, 16 operators across the world have now launched commercial femtocell services, and many more will launch before 2010 is over.

Article Tools

• 

AT&T, Vodafone, SFR, DoCoMo, Softbank, Optimus, and StarHub have all launched residential femtocells for consumers . Sprint and Verizon have been offering commercial solutions for far longer in the U.S., and Sprint is now offering upgraded 3G products. Some of the largest mobile network operators in the world are now deploying femtocells, and this commitment is transforming the femtocell from a great idea to a reality. This evidence is supported by anecdotal evidence from the January 2010 Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, where femtocells received a fevered reception.

Perhaps t he premature assumption that femtocells weren’t making an impact was based on overly optimistic forecasts, followed by a backlash as analysts made adjustments. For example, in November 2009, ABI Research reassessed its own previous predictions on market growth, making the figures for 2010 more realistic, but maintaining the longer-term growth projections for the market.

As the year draws in and we see what the real shipments were, t he generally accepted view is that femtocells saw a rapid acceleration in popularity during 2010 with more than 1 million units shipped. Despite its recent revision of market figures, ABI continues to forecast that by 2014 volumes will hit 40 million units per annum, while Dell Oro predicts more than 60 million.

So, why have femtocells taken longer to come to fruition than some expected?

Rupert Baines has 20 years of experience in technology marketing, working on commercializing many leading-edge technologies. He spent six years with Analog Devices in Boston, working on semiconductors for GSM and wireless infrastructure before managing the company’s broadband product line and holding responsibility for the industry-standard ADSL chipset. He has also worked for operators, most recently as director of product development and strategy for Atlantic Telecom, where he ran a large pan-European DSL rollout and trialled wireless broadband deployments.

Some Background

Femtocells are a very new technology. The first developments and prototypes were on show at conferences in 2007, but real products have only been available since 2009. Roughly speaking, the technology arrived in 2007. The technology issues were solved in 2008 (Iuh standard for connection; proof that interference was something that could be solved and that femtocells would not break the macro network). The first trial (“friendly customer” ) launches were in 2009, but there was still work to do on productizing (e.g., OSS/BS, provisioning, billing, and other “boring but essential work”).  With those issues more or less solved this year, only now can carriers support high volumes.

Continue to next page