Happy New Year! I hope 2009 was good for you and that this year will be better. Despite the progress of the past year, we are still in a depression and many engineers are still jobless. The hard times will be over when almost everyone goes back to work and the unemployment rate is back down to about 4% or 5%. With more Americans working, things will pick up quickly.

So what’s going to happen in 2010? The wireless sector changes daily, but it’s more unpredictable than chaotic. It’s easy to miss something big, and it’s difficult to make any firm predictions. However, you can count on a few trends in the coming year.

Smart Phones Dominate

Smart phones were the hot topic in 2009, and that will continue this year. The Federal Communications Commission estimates that smart-phone growth over the past four years was about 700%. Look for that to continue with more new models and probably more new handset manufacturers. The recent news about Google’s Nexus One phone was a surprise. Maybe Google is just testing the waters, though it’s something to watch. We may even see one other new player in this space as well. Everyone wants a piece of the smart-phone action.

It will be interesting to see what Google does. Maybe we will see a phone, maybe not. Google probably has a specific carrier in mind—T-Mobile, perhaps? But that could change. Maybe Google will have an open phone that anyone can buy and take to a carrier for activation. That could change the current business model, where the carriers select the phones they want to sell and subsidize their cost. More freedom of choice is good, yet the current system works well enough for most people.

Cell-phone operating systems (OSs) will continue their ongoing struggle. Google’s Android is on the upswing. The iPhone OS is strong but confined to Apple products. Symbian still leads worldwide but could be on the decline. The big question is what will become of Microsoft’s Windows Mobile OS. It has a decent market share now, but it appears to be heading downward. Will a new version help? And other companies like Samsung are deciding to go their own way. The interesting thing is that cell-phone subscribers couldn’t care less about what OS they have, as long as it’s easy to use. The availability of apps is a consideration but subscribers select a phone, not an OS, for that. It’s an ever-interesting evolution to follow in 2010.

Speaking of apps, expect more of them as well as more mobile Internet access. Once you have a smart phone, you’ll want to use its full potential. Voice calls are passé. Texting will remain popular, but more and more subscribers will want to take advantage of available applications. Many are trivial and stupid but popular, nonetheless. Many are truly valuable. And subscribers will more than ever access the Internet for e-mail and searches. With so much smart-phone activity, look for more mobile-handset friendly access points, Web sites, and services. Are you ready for the inevitable advertisements? Or perhaps you’re looking forward to cloud computing on your phone.

Networks Need An Upgrade

The regulations regarding net neutrality will be enacted in 2010. It’s inevitable. I’m against it, but I appear to be in the minority. What confuses me is why people and companies want more government regulation and complexity in their lives. If conventional wisdom is correct and I “follow the money,” I suppose some companies will benefit by being able to offer new products and services that the carriers must transport despite the condition of their networks. That will force the carriers to upgrade to advanced 3G and 4G faster than ever. That’s going to happen anyway, so I cannot see the need to rush regulations to force it sooner.

Anyway, watch for new regulations that will eventually cost us all more. Also, prepare for some network outages here and there as some companies and subscribers try to access whatever they want whenever they want. Outages are already happening in high-density settings given AT&T’s problems in New York City and San Francisco thanks to lots of iPhone users.

Similarly, you can expect faster 4G network upgrades. Carriers already are updating their networks with faster 3G to accommodate the growing use of smart phones that can access the Internet, play video, and otherwise use the available higher data rates. The FCC estimates that mobile data growth is about 130% per year. If that continues, we could see a quicker transition to 4G Long-Term Evolution (LTE) systems, though that will be expensive and take time.

It has taken years to get to the level of 3G we have now, which isn’t even 100% nationwide. In the larger cities, 3G has been around for a while. But rural areas and the smaller cities where there’s less of a need are always last to get the fastest service. The costs are high and the return may not be there. Companies need a reason to upgrade and, lest we forget, profit is paramount. Data usage will continue to increase and hopefully the carriers can keep pace. Observe how that balancing act plays out.

As part of the network updates and data increases, the backhaul systems also will get a much needed overhaul. T1 lines will give way to more point-to-point microwave wireless backhaul and fiber where possible. The 80-GHz spectrum seems to be a good spot for backhaul, so look for increases there.

If the government wants carriers to carry any content any time on the wireless networks, it is going to have to cough up more spectrum for the carriers. It is amazing how carriers have made good use of the existing 500 MHz or so of spectrum they now own. So far, subscriber growth and the accommodation of higher data rates have been achieved with technologies that deliver higher spectral efficiency, but there is a limit to that. Higher speed and more subscribers imply more bandwidth. It’s the physics of it.

The bottom line is that carriers need the spectrum to fulfill the government mandate of net neutrality as well as the rollout of broadband to everyone in the U.S. This year, the spectrum battle will ramp up as carriers face off with the TV broadcasters, satellite companies, and even the government itself to get more spectrum. And don’t forget that the government’s forthcoming broadband effort will also impact wireless, meaning even more bandwidth needs.

New Technologies Emerge

One more thing to make wireless life interesting in 2010 is the potential for smartbooks, which are larger than smart phones but smaller than netbooks. Smartbooks will have a full-size keyboard but won’t run Windows or use the big X86 Intel processors. These new devices will probably use ARM, some brand of Linux, and lots of flash. They will have embedded 3G cell-phone technology and Wi-Fi, suiting this new category of devices for communications and networking.

Prices will probably range from $200 to $300. The carriers probably will subsidize these devices if they’re offered. The big questions are if we will see them at all, when they will be released, and who really wants one. Apple’s rumored tablet computer probably fits in this category as well as a similar device called Litl that is designed strictly for cloud computing on the go. It should be an interesting year.

And, there are a few other smart devices to be aware of in the coming weeks. Apple’s new tablet or whatever it is may be announced shortly. It will probably have a cell phone inside and Wi-Fi. It may even be an e-reader as well. Freescale also will show off a Web-access tablet-like device at this week’s International Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas. There will probably be others. What will Microsoft do?

I’m happy to see Clearwire rolling out its Clear wireless broadband service nationwide. So far, so good. With its latest funding, that should continue. Watch as WiMAX continues its steady growth, and look for Clear in your area. As WiMAX is embedded into laptops, its use will further increase simply because it offers far greater range than Wi-Fi hotspots. Can WiMAX handsets be far behind?

The machine-to-machine (M2M) cellular segment keeps growing. Also known as embedded cellular, this field has silently gotten bigger each year. Embeds like the wireless in e-book readers are a huge segment. More and more companies will figure out how to use this fascinating technology. It is especially powerful when combined with GPS location services like OnStar. Look for further growth and some interesting new applications.

Additionally, we will see more Wi-Fi and 802.11 variations come to life in 2010. The peer-to-peer connection is one of them. This will let your laptop talk directly any other nearby laptop without going through an access point. Maybe we will see a final standard for a 1-Gbit/s Wi-Fi, which is in the works.

Wireless companies will be wishing for a better battery in 2010, with more ampere-hours per size and weight at reasonable cost. Don’t hold your breath, though. How about color screens for e-readers? I bet we will see them in the coming year.

One final thing—I’ll be attending the International CES. I suspect I will see some new things that I didn’t mention here. I won’t be surprised, as I don’t really have a crystal ball. We will report on significant announcements here in future issues and on the Web site. Have a great 2010.